A spokesman whistling in the dark

Malcolm's bile reached critical levels when, thanks to a redirection from Slugger O'Toole, he discovered the crystalline (and outdated) logic of Spokesman for the Opposition:

A political blog highlighting the issues that politicians prefer to dodge, intellectual, humourous [sic], down-to-earth. Spokesman was over 20 years a journalist.

Aaargh! A journalist but never a sub-editor.

Spokesman predicts:

74 seats for Fianna Fail, and 9 seats for Sinn Fein, this adds up to the magic figure of 83 seats - a majority of one seat in Dail Eireann - and they will be backed up by another 8 Independents, so when all is said and done, that's your new government, a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein coalition.

And this will result in:

the best ever [Government] in the history of Ireland in tackling poverty in Ireland - the most important onjective [sic] of all for any new government.

At this juncture Malcolm's Brooklyn-born son-in-law might well say: "Blow it out your arse!"

Let's change direction for a moment.

When Malcolm was at school, Charles II was supposed to have said “Let sleeping dogs lie”. Only later, Malcolm discovered this was another schoolman's lie: the actual royal utterance was more alliterative: “A stirred turd stinks.”

That ought to be enough to persuade Malcolm to keep stumm on this one.

However ...

1. Any alliance between FF and SF would invite all jobbing cartoonists to parody David Low’s “Rendezvous” cartoon:

2. “[T]he best ever in the history of Ireland in tackling poverty in Ireland...” Heaven help us! That possibility existed at the time of the 13th Dáil, with the coalition of Fine Gael and the progressives in the "First Inter-Party Government" of 1948-51:

The coalition government ... deserves recognition as a reforming administration and not just as the one that presided over the declaration of the Republic, the Mother and Child controversy ... and the internal squabbling of Clann na Poblachta. [Ferriter, page 482]

That government (and all its laudable aims) foundered on the clericalism of Seán MacBride and the opportunism of de Valera. Its lasting achievement amounted to what Liam O'Bríain called:

the arresting of the Führer mentality which had reached such dangerous heights in that section of the Irish people — the infallibility and superhuman quality of Dev. [Ferriter, page 483]

Any fantasist who has not read (for example) Diarmaid Ferriter still cannot be excused from noticing just how badly a decade of FF has been for the under-class. Equally, Sinn Féin has no track record of attaining social improvement. Any incoming Government will be dependent on the volatile votes of the newly-affluent bourgeoisie of the Dublin metropolis, who in turn are dependent on property values, inward investment and a frothy economy. On what grounds can we expect the tiger to change its stripes?

No. Definitely no. The next Irish social revolution is not yet. The next Dáil, whatever the complexion of the government bench, is the recipé as before.

So, Malcolm suggests:

• See tomorrow's Irish Times poll (spoiler at www.irishelection.com). This suggests little movement: FF @ 36%∧; FG @ 28%∨; Labour @ 13%∧; and SF @ 10%=.
• 73 seats for FF? Surely, you're joking!
• Don't expect great shifts on this until the final few days, if then (E&OE).
• Certainly don't expect any bounce for SF from the events up North.
• If total torpor sets in, watch the other radical vote: Labour (if only!) and even the Trots, but not SF much above 10%. Remember, too, this is a young electorate, and beards are not "cool".
  
• Overall, on any basis here, the revolution is postponed.

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