Saturday, March 15, 2008

Oink, oink...

Malcolm spent a few moments doing a quickie with the Primary returns to date.

He listed the 22 States (obviously including Florida) the Democrats won in 2000, and must win in 2008, which would deliver a total of 287 votes in the Electoral College.

There's not much point in summing the "popular" vote, because of the different ways delegates are selected between Primaries and Caucuses. However, when he summed the "Electoral College" votes for Clinton and Obama in these (for the Democrats) key States, Malcolm found something quite remarkable:
Clinton 161;
Obama 98.
Obviously, that does not include results for
  • Pennsylvania (Primary on 22 April) or
  • Oregon (20th May).
Then, as well, there may yet be some sort of re-run in
  • Florida (which is effectively Brooklyn-by-the-other-beach, for all intents and purposes).
The last polls Malcolm recalls had Clinton up by 8% in Oregon, and by 19% in Pennsylvania. That would take
Clinton to 189 Electoral College votes
of the 270 to win.

The fat lady ain't even into rehearsals yet.

Meanwhile, the Gadarene Swine of massed punditry continue with their pig-headed rush towards O'Bama. Sphere: Related Content


yourcousin said...

Actually the fat lady was held up from singing on Super Tuesday and that's why we're in the state we're in now. The Electoral college thing is the same as the super delegate issue in how it plays out in the elections (at least the idea of something other than the popular vote being the key factor). But some states are rethinking the matter. Pelosi's recent comments
while not rocking the boat on the actual letter of the law, does indicate some unease at the idea of having a candidate who loses the popular vote.

As for swine of any kind. I would urge restraint on visceral attacks (and yes I saw the comments about Hillary on Slugger so I know that they started it). I mean appreciate the bigger picture here. Brown's still in power, a Democrat will most likely take the White House and should see gains in both houses of Congress and Margaret Ritchie should be able to wipe the floor with Ruane in 2011 so your pretty much set. Now if only Bertie would cause a FF melt down and Labor, SF and Greens all grew some balls (at some point the Greens will have to give the ones they borrwed from FF back and grow some of their own) and form a plausible coalition you'd have a tri-fecta. I don't really see that last one happening but the rest of those probabilities should give you cause to rejoice. Meanwhile, they all give me ample opporunity to mock, chastise and otherwise berate them, though to no effect that I can see.

yourcousin said...


I haven't forgotten the "98" post but have been too busy to give it the proper commenting it deserves. I will try to see if I can get around to it tomorrow

Sharon said...

Malcolm, If you look at my grid:

You will see an even further breakout, based on states that we CAN win. Keep in mind, Florida and Michigan WILL count in the general election.

Take Care, Sharon
--> Speak Up For Hillary

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